About

The 270 Project

Independent political analysis focused on the Electoral College, congressional power, and the forces shaping American elections.

Why We Exist

American elections are decided by a small number of states, a handful of Senate seats, and margins that can be measured in thousands of votes. The 270 Project exists to make that landscape legible — to cut through the noise of daily campaign coverage and focus on the structural forces that actually determine who governs.

We are not a polling aggregator, a prediction market, or a partisan outlet. We are an analytical publication. Our work draws on demographic data, historical voting patterns, legislative records, and electoral geography to explain how power is distributed and contested in the United States.

The name comes from the number of Electoral College votes required to win the presidency. It is a reminder that American democracy operates through institutions and rules — not just sentiment — and that understanding those rules is the first step toward understanding the outcomes they produce.

How We Work

Primary sources first

Our analysis begins with official data: certified election results from state and county canvasses, U.S. Census Bureau demographic surveys, Federal Election Commission filings, and congressional vote records. We do not rely on secondary summaries when primary sources are available.

Historical context over hot takes

Every election is compared against the long arc of American electoral history. We resist the temptation to declare every cycle unprecedented. When something genuinely is unusual, we say so — and we show the data that supports that claim.

Uncertainty is acknowledged, not hidden

Political analysis involves genuine uncertainty. We distinguish between what the data shows, what it suggests, and what remains genuinely unknown. We do not manufacture false confidence to make our analysis sound more authoritative.

Geography and demography together

Electoral outcomes are shaped by where people live as much as by what they believe. Our analysis integrates geographic and demographic data — county-level shifts, urban-rural divides, generational change — rather than treating the electorate as a uniform national mass.

Editorial Standards

The 270 Project does not endorse candidates, parties, or ballot measures. Our analysis describes and explains electoral dynamics; it does not advocate for particular outcomes.

When we make projections or assessments — such as labeling a state 'lean Republican' or 'toss-up' — those judgments are based on publicly available data and stated methodology, not private polling or partisan preference. We update our assessments when new data warrants it and explain what changed.

Corrections are issued promptly and transparently. If an error affects a material claim in a published piece, we note the correction at the top of the article with a description of what was changed and why.

We do not accept advertising from political campaigns, PACs, or advocacy organizations. Our editorial independence is not for sale.

What We Cover

Electoral College
State-by-state analysis of presidential election dynamics, including demographic shifts, historical margins, and the structural advantages and vulnerabilities each party faces in the path to 270.
Congressional Elections
House and Senate races, the balance of power in Congress, redistricting effects, and the midterm landscape — including which seats are genuinely competitive and why.
Demographic Change
How shifts in education, age, race, and geography are reshaping the electorate over time, and what those changes mean for the partisan coalitions that compete for power.
Campaign Strategy
The logic behind how campaigns allocate resources, target voters, and construct winning coalitions — and the historical record of which strategies have succeeded and which have failed.