Articles
Evidence-driven analysis of elections, the Electoral College, and the coalitions that decide them.
Michigan's Working-Class Divide: Tariffs, Auto Jobs, and the Voters Who Decided 2024
How Michigan's auto industry, union households, white-collar workers, and construction trades became central to a debate over economic security — and whether the consequences of tariffs are changing political attitudes.
West Virginia: How Democrats Lost a State That Once Belonged to Them
From a Democratic stronghold built on coal miners and organized labor to one of America's most Republican states — West Virginia's political transformation raises a fundamental question: What happened to the Democratic coalition, and can it ever be rebuilt?
How to Lose an Election: Lessons From the Democratic Defeat of 2024
The 2024 election was not lost because of one demographic group, one advertisement, one debate moment, or one policy position. It was lost across multiple dimensions simultaneously — and understanding why requires looking at all of them.
Election Integrity Is Bigger Than Winning
The debate over election integrity has become so partisan that it's nearly impossible to discuss honestly. But the underlying question — whether Americans can trust their elections — matters regardless of which party benefits.
The Sunbelt Shift: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada
Three states that were reliably Republican for decades are now genuine battlegrounds. Understanding why requires looking at demographic change, migration patterns, and the limits of partisan realignment.